Post by q on Nov 30, 2017 22:02:05 GMT
Does anybody else realize this is a pretty stacked card? For sure there are going to be some messy fights.
Max Holloway vs Jose Aldo II
At first I questioned if Aldo was good enough to challenge Max again. He got pressured with volume and gassed out. That's not something you can fix so easily over the course of 3 months. However, recent interviews with Aldo shows a different guy. He's actually very relaxed, confident, and overall happy. This is a hungry Aldo with a good game plan. I think he's still physically stronger than Holloway and with more knock out power. His plan seems to be to set the pace instead of letting Holloway do it. If he can pressure Holloway early on and hit him in the leg with those crazy kicks, Aldo could very well take the belt back. He's only 30 so it's dumb to say he's got too much mileage. Aldo hasn't really taken that many hard shots throughout his career. It also seems that the whole McGregor stuff has fallen way behind him by now and mentally this is the healthiest Aldo's been in a long time. Mix in all the tools Aldo has and I think if he is smart he's got it in the bag.
Aldo's strategy: Leg kicks and takedowns. Aldo is a BJJ Blackbelt and Holloway recently got his Purple belt. Aldo's also stronger so he should utilize his ground game instead of trying to play into Holloway's strengths.
Holloway's strategy: Set the pace and pressure Aldo until he gases like last time.
Predictions: Aldo finishes Holloway by round 3 or Holloway after round 3.
Alistar Overeem vs Francis Ngannou
Honestly, you have to respect Alistar Overeem. Even post-USADA, this guy is still doing very well for himself and made the adjustments necessary. I do think he's seen mileage and that being off steroids has changed him. But unlike some of the other fighters who have fallen off, Alistar adapted and started to fight smarter. That being said though, Francis Ngannou is a hungry beast who may be the hardest hitter we've ever seen in the Octagon. He broke the world record! He's also much younger. The only thing that I can see working against him is his gas-tank. We don't see longer matches and if Overeem can keep Ngannou at bay for five-rounds, it could definitely be Overeem's win due to experience.
Overeem's strategy: Let Ngannou go crazy and gas himself by round 2-3. Then pick him apart with point-fighting until he sees a good opening.
Ngannou's strategy: Pulverize Overeem within the first few rounds and knock him out.
Predictions: Ngannou by KO in round 1/2 or Overeem by decision.
Eddie Alvarez vs Justin Gaethje
This is going to be a war. The question being just how much can these fighters take before burning out. It's really an old school fight that's going to boil down to who is the grittier fighter and who has the most heart. It's a hard pick. Both fighters are good wrestlers but Justin Gaethje placed 7th in the 157lb NCAA Division I Championship vs Alvarez's amateur wrestling background. I'd say Eddie is definitely stronger but skill-wise Gaethje is likely better (plus experience with wrestling GSP doesn't hurt). Eddie also has severe mileage and has been in many wars. It's arguable that at 34 he's on the decline, especially after the shots he's taken over the length of his career. That being said, it's a fight and both of them are prone to getting stung.
Alvarez's strategy: I'd like to say fight smart but we all know Eddie's going to brawl. He should rely on avoiding straight wars with a younger dog and use his experience to his advantage.
Gaethje's strategy: I'd like to say utilize his takedowns and ground-game but Gaethje likes to go to war with strikes.
Predictions: Someone is getting knocked out by round 3. That person is likely Eddie Alvarez. Gaethje by TKO, round 3.
Henry Cejudo vs Sergio Pettis
I'm actually on the hype train for Cejudo. Pettis is good but he's up against a Olympic gold medalist in wrestling whose striking has gotten much better. I think the competitive Cejudo can easily grind out Sergio if his striking has indeed evolved to the point where he can compete with a blackbelt in kickboxing and taekwando. But the way he took out Wilson Reis (in a quicker fashion than Demetrious Johnson did) tells me that the olympian Cejudo has all the tools to survive the striking, take Pettis down and grind him out for the W. I just think it's Cejudo's time right now and Pettis won't be able to deal with an olympic gold medalist' takedowns.
Cejudo's Strategy: Use his striking to set up an opportunity for the takedown. He may have to bang with Pettis for a little while.
Pettis' Strategy: Keep this on his feet and work on his TD defense to hopefully get a TKO or decision win.
Predictions: Henry Cejudo by decision or submission.
Michelle Waterson vs Tecia Torres
As much as I love Michelle Waterson, this fight doesn't really interest me much. This is a battle between two strikers. One's a blackbelt in Karate and the other is a a blackbelt in Karate/Taekwando. Michelle Waterson also hasn't finished a lot of her fights via strikes but rather submission (though she's a purple belt). Tecia Torres will want to stay striking and has decent grappling defense (but no submission threat to Waterson). Overall, this fight can be interesting but most likely it'll boil down to Waterson's ground game vs Torres' grappling defense.
Waterson's strategy: Take down Torres and submit her. Her striking is good too, but is it really the best plan to stand with her?
Torres' strategy: Keep it standing and make sure her grappling is good enough to keep a purple belt from taking her down and submitting her. I think Torres has better striking but all her wins are via decision so I doubt she'll take out Waterson.
Predictions: Michelle Waterson via submission by round 3 or Tecia Torres by split decision.
Max Holloway vs Jose Aldo II
At first I questioned if Aldo was good enough to challenge Max again. He got pressured with volume and gassed out. That's not something you can fix so easily over the course of 3 months. However, recent interviews with Aldo shows a different guy. He's actually very relaxed, confident, and overall happy. This is a hungry Aldo with a good game plan. I think he's still physically stronger than Holloway and with more knock out power. His plan seems to be to set the pace instead of letting Holloway do it. If he can pressure Holloway early on and hit him in the leg with those crazy kicks, Aldo could very well take the belt back. He's only 30 so it's dumb to say he's got too much mileage. Aldo hasn't really taken that many hard shots throughout his career. It also seems that the whole McGregor stuff has fallen way behind him by now and mentally this is the healthiest Aldo's been in a long time. Mix in all the tools Aldo has and I think if he is smart he's got it in the bag.
Aldo's strategy: Leg kicks and takedowns. Aldo is a BJJ Blackbelt and Holloway recently got his Purple belt. Aldo's also stronger so he should utilize his ground game instead of trying to play into Holloway's strengths.
Holloway's strategy: Set the pace and pressure Aldo until he gases like last time.
Predictions: Aldo finishes Holloway by round 3 or Holloway after round 3.
Alistar Overeem vs Francis Ngannou
Honestly, you have to respect Alistar Overeem. Even post-USADA, this guy is still doing very well for himself and made the adjustments necessary. I do think he's seen mileage and that being off steroids has changed him. But unlike some of the other fighters who have fallen off, Alistar adapted and started to fight smarter. That being said though, Francis Ngannou is a hungry beast who may be the hardest hitter we've ever seen in the Octagon. He broke the world record! He's also much younger. The only thing that I can see working against him is his gas-tank. We don't see longer matches and if Overeem can keep Ngannou at bay for five-rounds, it could definitely be Overeem's win due to experience.
Overeem's strategy: Let Ngannou go crazy and gas himself by round 2-3. Then pick him apart with point-fighting until he sees a good opening.
Ngannou's strategy: Pulverize Overeem within the first few rounds and knock him out.
Predictions: Ngannou by KO in round 1/2 or Overeem by decision.
Eddie Alvarez vs Justin Gaethje
This is going to be a war. The question being just how much can these fighters take before burning out. It's really an old school fight that's going to boil down to who is the grittier fighter and who has the most heart. It's a hard pick. Both fighters are good wrestlers but Justin Gaethje placed 7th in the 157lb NCAA Division I Championship vs Alvarez's amateur wrestling background. I'd say Eddie is definitely stronger but skill-wise Gaethje is likely better (plus experience with wrestling GSP doesn't hurt). Eddie also has severe mileage and has been in many wars. It's arguable that at 34 he's on the decline, especially after the shots he's taken over the length of his career. That being said, it's a fight and both of them are prone to getting stung.
Alvarez's strategy: I'd like to say fight smart but we all know Eddie's going to brawl. He should rely on avoiding straight wars with a younger dog and use his experience to his advantage.
Gaethje's strategy: I'd like to say utilize his takedowns and ground-game but Gaethje likes to go to war with strikes.
Predictions: Someone is getting knocked out by round 3. That person is likely Eddie Alvarez. Gaethje by TKO, round 3.
Henry Cejudo vs Sergio Pettis
I'm actually on the hype train for Cejudo. Pettis is good but he's up against a Olympic gold medalist in wrestling whose striking has gotten much better. I think the competitive Cejudo can easily grind out Sergio if his striking has indeed evolved to the point where he can compete with a blackbelt in kickboxing and taekwando. But the way he took out Wilson Reis (in a quicker fashion than Demetrious Johnson did) tells me that the olympian Cejudo has all the tools to survive the striking, take Pettis down and grind him out for the W. I just think it's Cejudo's time right now and Pettis won't be able to deal with an olympic gold medalist' takedowns.
Cejudo's Strategy: Use his striking to set up an opportunity for the takedown. He may have to bang with Pettis for a little while.
Pettis' Strategy: Keep this on his feet and work on his TD defense to hopefully get a TKO or decision win.
Predictions: Henry Cejudo by decision or submission.
Michelle Waterson vs Tecia Torres
As much as I love Michelle Waterson, this fight doesn't really interest me much. This is a battle between two strikers. One's a blackbelt in Karate and the other is a a blackbelt in Karate/Taekwando. Michelle Waterson also hasn't finished a lot of her fights via strikes but rather submission (though she's a purple belt). Tecia Torres will want to stay striking and has decent grappling defense (but no submission threat to Waterson). Overall, this fight can be interesting but most likely it'll boil down to Waterson's ground game vs Torres' grappling defense.
Waterson's strategy: Take down Torres and submit her. Her striking is good too, but is it really the best plan to stand with her?
Torres' strategy: Keep it standing and make sure her grappling is good enough to keep a purple belt from taking her down and submitting her. I think Torres has better striking but all her wins are via decision so I doubt she'll take out Waterson.
Predictions: Michelle Waterson via submission by round 3 or Tecia Torres by split decision.